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Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2020-08-01 22:48:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 012048 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 5(29) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 6(31) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 3(27) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 3(27) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) X(27) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 1(28) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 1(28) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 1(32) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) X(34) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) X(27) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) X(28) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) X(29) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) X(24) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 1(34) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) X(29) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 1(33) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) X(27) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) X(27) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) X(24) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) X(27) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) ALLENTOWN PA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) X(25) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) X(28) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 12(26) X(26) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) X(21) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 17(36) X(36) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 14(36) X(36) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 6(23) X(23) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 12(36) X(36) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 4(28) X(28) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 4(28) X(28) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 4(28) X(28) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 1(28) X(28) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 1(32) X(32) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) X(33) X(33) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 1(35) X(35) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 1(33) X(33) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) X(32) X(32) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20(31) X(31) X(31) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 13(27) X(27) X(27) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 18(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 17(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 6( 7) 25(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ORLANDO FL 34 1 12(13) 15(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 4 48(52) 18(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 6( 6) 16(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 4 48(52) 17(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) PATRICK AFB 50 X 5( 5) 16(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) PATRICK AFB 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 20 59(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 26(26) 7(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 74 16(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) W PALM BEACH 50 7 28(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) W PALM BEACH 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 66 4(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) FT LAUDERDALE 50 9 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) FT LAUDERDALE 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 18 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MIAMI FL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARATHON FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 85 4(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) GRAND BAHAMA 50 16 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GRAND BAHAMA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 19

2020-08-01 22:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 262 WTNT24 KNHC 012042 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM HALLANDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 78.7W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 78.7W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 78.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.1N 79.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.4N 80.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.8N 80.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.7N 80.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.4N 79.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.4N 76.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 45.4N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 50.7N 57.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 78.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics

2020-08-01 22:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2020 20:35:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2020 21:32:02 GMT

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-08-01 22:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 012034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 The depression is barely a tropical cyclone. Most of the deep convection from the burst earlier in the day has now dissipated and the circulation appears to be losing definition. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the ASCAT data from several hours ago. Since the cyclone is over cool waters and in a dry environment, significant deep convection is unlikely to return. Therefore, the depression will likely become a remnant low tonight and open into a trough shortly thereafter. The weak and shallow system has turned to the left recently, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 305/11 kt. A general west-northwest motion is expected until the system dissipates a couple of hundred miles north of the northern-most Cabo Verde Islands tonight or on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 19.2N 23.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 19.9N 25.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2020-08-01 22:33:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 012033 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number speed wind tropical

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