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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-07-25 16:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 251432 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-25 16:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Jul 25 the center of Gonzalo was located near 10.5, -60.5 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 16
2020-07-25 16:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 251432 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 ...GONZALO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.5N 60.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 60.5 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected today and tonight. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands later today. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area today. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern Venezuela. Gonzalo is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches over the southern Windward Islands, the Leeward Antilles, and the remainder of far northern Venezuela. This includes Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible in the mountainous terrain of Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern Venezuela, which may lead to flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-25 13:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 251153 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo, located about 100 miles east of Trinidad. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Hanna, located over the western Gulf of Mexico near the southeast coast of Texas. A tropical wave is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles southwest of Cabo Verde Islands. The wave is expected to move westward at about 15 mph during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by early next week when the system reaches the western tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-25 13:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAIN FROM GONZALO NEARING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Jul 25 the center of Gonzalo was located near 10.3, -59.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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