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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-21 16:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 14:59:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 14:59:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 33
2021-08-21 16:54:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 211454 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Grace has continued to move over east-central Mexico since making landfall around 0600 UTC. Visible satellite images show that the system's organization is degrading, but there is still some deep convection near the center with a few showers and thunderstorms near the coast. Assuming a slightly faster rate of weakening than given by the Decay-SHIPS output to account for the mountainous terrain, the advisory intensity is set to 60 kt. Additional rapid weakening should occur while the cyclone moves over the mountains of central and west-central Mexico today and tonight. Grace is likely to weaken below tropical storm strength tonight and dissipate tomorrow morning. After making a southwestward turn just after landfall, the current motion is just a little south of west, or 250/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Grace should cause a generally westward motion until dissipation on Sunday. The mid-level remnants of Grace are expected to continue westward after the surface center dissipates, and to emerge into the eastern Pacific Ocean by late Sunday. There is a good chance that this will lead to the formation of a new tropical cyclone over that basin by early next week. Key Messages: 1. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 19.7N 98.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 19.4N 100.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/1200Z 19.0N 102.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-21 16:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER LAND BUT STILL CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 the center of Grace was located near 19.7, -98.9 with movement WSW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 33
2021-08-21 16:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 211454 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...GRACE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER LAND BUT STILL CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 98.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE of CIUDAD DE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo is replaced by a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Barra del Tordo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 98.9 West. Grace is moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a generally westward motion is expected into early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over central and west-central Mexico through tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected while the system moves over the mountains of central and west-central Mexico today and tonight, and Grace is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight and dissipate by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding should continue to subside along the coast of Mexico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the tropical storm warning area along the coast of Mexico for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi, 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected through Sunday. Over Ciudad de Mexico, 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2021-08-21 16:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 211454 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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