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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 33
2021-08-21 16:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211453 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO IS REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO BARRA DEL TORDO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 98.9W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 98.9W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 98.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.4N 100.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.0N 102.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 98.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-21 13:49:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
512 ABPZ20 KNHC 211149 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Aug 21 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Hurricane Grace, located over eastern Mexico, is forecast to dissipate over inland Mexico today. However, Grace's remnants are expected to continue moving westward and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean off the west-central coast of Mexico by Sunday afternoon. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-21 13:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 211149 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Grace, located inland over eastern Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Henri, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Disorganized shower activity over the eastern Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands and another wave to its west. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development early next week as this system moves to the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-21 13:48:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING HENRI... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 the center of Henri was located near 33.6, -72.7 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 22A
2021-08-21 13:48:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 211148 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING HENRI... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 72.7W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Westport Massachusetts * Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 72.7 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a turn toward the north-northwest expected by tonight. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane later today and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical conditions expected by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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