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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-15 04:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 260 WTNT22 KNHC 150253 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, ANGUILLA, ST. KITTS AND NEVIS, AND MONTSERRAT, AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO CABO CAUCEDO * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 62.4W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 62.4W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.3N 64.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 67.0W...NEAR PUERTO RICO MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N 69.1W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 70.9W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 73.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.2N 75.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.7N 81.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 25.6N 84.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 62.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-15 01:58:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED GRACE NOW NEAR GUADELOUPE... ...SQUALLY WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Aug 14 the center of Grace was located near 16.6, -61.5 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 6A
2021-08-15 01:58:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 802 WTNT32 KNHC 142358 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED GRACE NOW NEAR GUADELOUPE... ...SQUALLY WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 61.5W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM N OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo Caucedo northward to Samana. The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Haiti border eastward to Cabo Caucedo and for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Samana westward to the Haiti border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Samana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be required for this area tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm Grace was relocated to near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 61.5 West. Grace is moving quickly toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is expected to pass through the Leeward Islands tonight, near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, near or over the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday, and then near or over Haiti Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater Antilles Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and in the Dominican Republic Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Tuesday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-15 01:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Aug 2021 23:58:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Aug 2021 21:29:03 GMT
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-15 01:40:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
003 ABNT20 KNHC 142340 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Grace, located just north of Guadeloupe. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on the Remnants of Fred which are expected to re-generate into a tropical cyclone over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight or Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A small area of low pressure associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms has developed more than 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda. Some gradual development is possible over this weekend into early next week as this system drifts slowly southward near Bermuda over the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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