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Tropical Depression Four Graphics
2021-06-28 16:50:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 14:50:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 15:22:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-06-28 16:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 281448 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FLORENCE SC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 8 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LITTLE RIVER 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 31 X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 13 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 5 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four (AT4/AL042021)
2021-06-28 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 the center of Four was located near 31.9, -78.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four Public Advisory Number 1
2021-06-28 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281447 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 78.3W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the coast of South Carolina from Edisto Beach northeastward to South Santee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 78.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should make landfall along coast of South Carolina in the warning area later this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected today, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is forecast after landfall occurs. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Four can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by late this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The depression could produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina. This region has been dry, limiting potential widespread flooding impacts, however, local flooding impacts, especially in urban areas along the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts, cannot be ruled out at this time. Farther inland, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible across Upstate South Carolina, the Piedmont of Georgia, and into northeastern Alabama. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Royal Sound, SC to South Santee River, SC...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-06-28 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 281447 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.3W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.3W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.8N 80.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.2N 83.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 35.2N 85.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 78.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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