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Tropical Depression Danny Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-06-29 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290232 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Danny Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Danny made landfall just north of Hilton Head on Pritchards Island, South Carolina, around 2330 UTC with maximum winds of about 35 kt. Since then, the storm moved inland across extreme southern South Carolina and is now located over east-central Georgia. Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Danny has weakened, and the cyclone has now been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. Heavy rains associated with the depression are spreading westward across central Georgia. The weakening cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue overnight and Tuesday taking Danny, or its remnants, across Georgia and northern Alabama. As the system continues its trek inland, additional weakening is forecast, and Danny will likely dissipate by late Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 32.6N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1200Z 33.3N 83.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Danny (AT4/AL042021)
2021-06-29 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DANNY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 the center of Danny was located near 32.6, -81.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Danny Public Advisory Number 3
2021-06-29 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Danny Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...DANNY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 81.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Danny was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 81.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Danny will move further inland across east-central and northern Georgia tonight and Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Danny is expected to dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Danny can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Danny may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts in coastal regions of Georgia and southern South Carolina tonight. This region has been dry, limiting potential widespread flooding impacts, however, local flooding impacts, especially in urban areas along the southern South Carolina and Georgia coast, cannot be ruled out at this time. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Danny Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-06-29 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 290232 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Danny Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-06-29 04:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 81.5W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 81.5W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.3N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 81.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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