je.st
news
Tag: tropical
Tropical Storm Enrique Graphics
2021-06-26 07:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Jun 2021 05:35:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Jun 2021 03:22:31 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
enrique
Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-26 07:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 the center of Enrique was located near 16.5, -104.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
enrique
Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-06-26 07:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 260535 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 ...ENRIQUE STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 104.3W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.3 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm is forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest Saturday night or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly heading through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Enrique is likely to become a hurricane today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Enrique Graphics
2021-06-26 04:40:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Jun 2021 02:40:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Jun 2021 02:40:32 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
enrique
Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-06-26 04:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260238 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Enrique's cloud pattern has continued to improve since this afternoon. There has been a notable increase in banding, and the Central Dense Overcast has become more symmetric. In addition, a SSMIS microwave overpass from shortly before 0000 UTC revealed an improved inner core structure with a band of deep convection wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center. The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45 kt), respectively. Given the improvement in structure the intensity was increased to 55 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory and remains at that value for this advisory. The tropical storm is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 24 to 36 hours. Those favorable conditions along with Enrique's improved inner core structure are likely to result in a period of rapid strengthening during the next day or so. In fact, the SHIPS guidance explicitly calls for rapid strengthening, and the latest NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity near major hurricane strength in 36 hours and lies between the SHIPS model and the slightly lower HCCA and ICON consensus aids. After 36-48 h, increasing shear, and possibly cooler upwelled waters, are likely to induce steady weakening throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Enrique continues to move west-northwestward or 295/8 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24 and 60 hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen causing the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again. There has been little overall change to the track guidance this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast is not very different from before. It should be noted that the GFS and HWRF models depict a sharper northward turn over the weekend and bring the center of Enrique somewhat closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico than the remainder of the guidance, however the most recent run of the HWRF has trended westward during the early portion of the forecast. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.3N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 17.8N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 18.9N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 19.8N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 20.5N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 21.5N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [752] [753] [754] [755] [756] [757] [758] [759] [760] [761] [762] [763] [764] [765] [766] [767] [768] [769] [770] [771] next »