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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-06-19 04:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 190243 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 7 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MONTGOMERY AL 34 3 11(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) WHITING FLD FL 34 13 10(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) PENSACOLA FL 34 16 10(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 290N 870W 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 63 7(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 15 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MORGAN CITY LA 34 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) LAFAYETTE LA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-06-19 04:42:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190242 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Deep convection has been trying to consolidate closer to the estimated center of Dolores over the past several hours, suggesting that the broad circulation of the cyclone may be starting to contract. The CIMSS ADT and SATCON indicated some strengthening since the previous advisory, which justified increasing the storm's intensity to 45 kt for the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory. The recent Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are in agreement with this value, and therefore 45 kt will be this advisory's initial intensity. Dolores is moving to the northwest at 8 kt around the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its east. A turn to the north-northwest along with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to occur through Sunday morning. There is about 120 n mi of spread in the track guidance at 24 h, and with the cyclone's angle of approach to the coast of Mexico, a variation in the track produces a large difference in the coastlines potentially affected by Dolores. The westernmost guidance has the center of the cyclone clipping the coast just north of Manzanillo in about 24 h, while the easternmost solutions make landfall in about 18 h near Punta San Telmo. Overall, the guidance has shifted little this evening, and therefore the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, which lies near the various multi-model track consensus. This track would take the center of Dolores across the coast between Punta San Telmo and Manzanillo early Saturday afternoon. The surrounding environmental conditions are favorable for Dolores to continue to strengthen, with the main inhibiting factor being the broad circulation as indicated by an ASCAT overpass earlier this afternoon. Dolores is currently forecast to peak at an intensity of 55 kt by late Saturday morning before making landfall. How much the circulation consolidates over the next 12-18 h will likely determine if the peak intensity of Dolores prior to landfall is higher or lower than indicated. After landfall, Dolores should rapidly weaken over the rugged terrain of western Mexico, with the guidance in good agreement on dissipating the cyclone by Sunday morning. Other than indicating an earlier dissipation, the new NHC intensity forecast has changed little from the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening tonight and early on Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday afternoon. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.3N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.6N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 20.0N 104.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z 22.6N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Dolores Graphics
2021-06-19 04:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 02:42:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 02:42:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-06-19 04:39:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 401 FOPZ14 KNHC 190238 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 27(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 29 32(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) MANZANILLO 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 82 X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ZIHUATANEJO 34 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Dolores (EP4/EP042021)
2021-06-19 04:39:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TONIGHT... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Dolores was located near 16.3, -102.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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