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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-06-19 16:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 191438 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA...AND FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 89.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 89.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 90.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 32.9N 85.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.7N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.0N 77.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.5N 72.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.4N 67.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 49.5N 57.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 89.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Dolores Graphics
2021-06-19 16:37:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 14:37:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 14:37:53 GMT
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dolores
Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-06-19 16:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 125 WTPZ44 KNHC 191437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Dolores's center is moving onshore near the Michoacan/Colima border a little to the northwest of Punta San Telmo, Mexico. Within its last few hours over water, Dolores's satellite presentation continued to improve, and an SSMIS microwave pass from 1155 UTC showed that the storm has a large, well-defined mid-level eye surrounded by a nearly closed eyewall. Dolores appears to be very close to hurricane strength, and its current intensity is set at 60 kt as a compromise between estimates of T3.5 and T4.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Dolores has been accelerating while approaching the coast, and its current motion is estimated to be toward the north-northwest (335 degrees) at 11 kt. With the center forecast to move farther inland through the day, the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico is expected to disrupt the surface circulation, and the model guidance generally shows the low-level vorticity dissipating in about 12 hours, or less. To maintain continuity with previous forecasts, the NHC official forecast maintains a track for 24 hours, showing Dolores weakening fast and degenerating to a remnant low over west-central Mexico by this time tomorrow. However, it is entirely possible that the surface circulation will have dissipated by Sunday morning, with the associated rains continuing to spread northward with the remnant mid-level circulation. Even though Dolores is making landfall, the hurricane watch for the coast of Mexico is being maintained on this advisory since gusts to hurricane force could be occurring to the east of where the center is moving onshore. Key Messages: 1. Even though Dolores had made landfall, tropical storm conditions are still occurring within the tropical storm warning area and will spread farther inland across west-central Mexico through the day and tonight. Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are still possible for a few more hours within the hurricane watch area. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 18.6N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON THE COAST 12H 20/0000Z 20.4N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 21.8N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dolores (EP4/EP042021)
2021-06-19 16:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE MICHOACAN/COLIMA BORDER JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Dolores was located near 18.6, -103.7 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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dolores
Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-06-19 16:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 955 WTPZ24 KNHC 191436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 103.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 103.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.8N 104.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 103.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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