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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-05-31 22:39:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 312039 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 The satellite presentation of Andres has improved considerably since this morning. The eye has become more distinct and warmed in infrared imagery, and is now surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of about -60C to -70C. Objective and subjective Dvorak estimates have increased, and currently range from T5.5/102 kt to T6.1/117 kt. The initial intensity has been raised to 110 kt for this advisory. Beyond the observed intensity increase today, the overall intensity forecast reasoning has not changed. The cyclone will be moving over cooler waters during the forecast period, and should cross the 26C isotherm in about 36 hours, which should result in weakening. More rapid weakening forecast at 48 hours and beyond, with Andres forecast to become a remnant low in about 4 days as the shear increases over very cool SSTs. The new NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one through 48 hours to account for the initial intensity, and is similar after that. The official forecast is generally close to the IVCN intensity consensus. The hurricane has jogged to the left since this morning, with an initial motion of 270/07. Andres should gradually turn poleward during the next several days as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge around 125W. There remains a fair bit of spread in the track guidance throughout the period. The UKMET and ECMWF are initially to the left of the rest of the guidance for the first 12 to 24 hours, and the NHC forecast trends towards those aids given the more westerly initial motion. Late in the period, all of the dynamical models now show a turn toward the north and northeast, but significant spread remains. Given that Andres should be sheared apart by days 4 and 5, the NHC forecast shows only a slow northward drift, in better agreement with the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean. The GFS remains an outlier with a track that appears to go too far to the northeast for such a weak system. Beyond 24 hours, the new NHC track is similar to or a little to the right of the previous one, adjusted for the initial position and motion, and lies a little to the left of the multi-model consensus. The initial 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT pass. Andres is only the fifth major hurricane to form in the basin in May since reliable records began in 1970. Previous May major hurricanes were Adolph (2001), Alma (2002), Bud (2012), and Amanda (2014). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 15.3N 118.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 15.5N 119.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 16.3N 121.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 17.2N 122.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 20.0N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z 20.5N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-05-31 22:38:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE FAR FROM LAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun May 31 the center of ANDRES was located near 15.3, -118.8 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 15
2015-05-31 22:38:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 312038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 ...ANDRES STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE FAR FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 118.8W ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 118.8 West. Andres is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west- northwest is forecast tonight, and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Andres is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Andres are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2015-05-31 22:38:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 312038 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 2100 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 15
2015-05-31 22:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 312036 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 2100 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 118.8W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 118.8W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.5N 119.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.3N 121.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.2N 122.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 95NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 20.5N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 118.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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