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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 9
2015-05-30 10:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 ...ANDRES A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 115.6W ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 115.6 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the day. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, with weakening forecast to begin tonight and continue through Sunday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2015-05-30 10:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 300837 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 9
2015-05-30 10:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 300836 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.6W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.6W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.4N 117.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.8N 122.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics
2015-05-30 05:07:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 May 2015 02:40:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 May 2015 03:03:44 GMT
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-05-30 04:44:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300244 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015 Andres is gradually intensifying. The cyclone is maintaining a symmetric central dense overcast, consisting of plenty of cold-topped deep convection. A 2256 UTC GPM microwave pass showed numerous, well organized convective bands and a closed low-level ring of convection; in addition, a warm spot has recently become evident in infrared satellite imagery. Satellite intensity estimates at 0000 UTC were 4.0/65 kt and 4.5/75 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, and the latest ADT value from UW-CIMSS is 4.3/72 kt. Since that time, Andres' cloud pattern has increased further in organization, and the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt. Andres' motion has shifted toward the right or northwest, 320/06, in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 115w caused by a shortwave trough near the Baja California peninsula. After this feature moves eastward tomorrow, the ridge is forecast to rebuild which should result in the track's bending toward the west- northwest and west by 36 to 48 hours. For this forecast cycle, there has been a notable shift in the guidance to the left through 48 hours, and the track has generally been shifted in that direction but not as far left as the ECMWF and GFS solutions. After 48 hours, the spread in the guidance increases, with the GFS depicting a stronger cyclone on the northern end of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF a weaker one on the southern edge. The official NHC forecast track lies nearly between the two extremes, close to the multi-model consensus (TVCE). The intensity forecast is challenging. Despite moderate northerly shear, the cyclone has slowly strengthened during the past 24 hours. Although this shear is forecast to persist through tomorrow, the cyclone's inner-core structure suggests that further intensification should occur. The official forecast exceeds the statistical-dynamical guidance through 36 hours on the basis of current trends and the hurricane's well organized inner core. Although the shear should lessen in a day or two, weakening should commence as thermodynamics in the near-storm environment gradually become less conducive for intensification. The official NHC intensity forecast shows steady weakening after 36 hours, very similar to the multi-model consensus (ICON). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 13.4N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.2N 116.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 15.1N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 15.7N 118.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 16.2N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 17.4N 122.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 18.6N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 19.1N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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