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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 13
2015-05-31 10:34:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 310834 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.4W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.4W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.8N 118.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.3N 119.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.8N 120.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 125.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 19.5N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 117.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics
2015-05-31 05:07:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 May 2015 02:47:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 May 2015 03:03:44 GMT
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-05-31 04:52:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 310252 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 Andres has strengthened further today despite moderate northwesterly shear. The cyclone had been maintaining a symmetric central dense overcast (CDO), and the eye had slowly warmed until about 0000 UTC. Over the past few hours though, the CDO has become more irregularly shaped and the eye more indistinct. Dvorak T-numbers were 5.5/102 kt at 0000 UTC from both agencies, and UW-CIMSS ADT values leveled off at 5.7/107 kt. These data suggest that Andres may have been a major hurricane at that time, but satellite data suggest that the cyclone has since begun to weaken. The initial intensity is set at 95 kt, slightly lower than 0000 UTC intensity estimates. Andres is still moving generally northwestward in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge around 120w. Most of the track guidance shows a high pressure ridge north of the cyclone strengthening on Sunday which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward. Beyond 48 hours, the track models significantly diverge, with the GFS-based guidance depicting a stronger cyclone being steered northwestward over cool waters, followed by an eastward turn. The ECMWF shows a weaker version of Andres eventually turning westward, with its solution on the southern side of the guidance envelope. The official NHC forecast is close to the multi- model consensus (TVCE) through 36 hours. After that, the overly strong GFS run is disregarded, resulting in a track forecast relatively far left of TVCE. The shear over Andres is forecast to decrease dramatically within 24 hours, but the cyclone will be moving over gradually cooler waters and ingesting drier and more stable air during the next couple of days. This competition between dynamic and thermodynamic factors should result in a slow weakening through 48 hours. After that time, even more unfavorable thermodynamic conditions could result in a quicker rate of weakening, and Andres is expected to become a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is close to LGEM and somewhat lower than the multi-model consensus ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 15.1N 116.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 15.6N 117.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 16.1N 119.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 16.5N 120.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 18.4N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 19.3N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-05-31 04:47:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat May 30 the center of ANDRES was located near 15.1, -116.8 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 12
2015-05-31 04:47:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 310247 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 ...ANDRES NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 116.8W ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 116.8 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west- northwest is likely by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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