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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-05-29 22:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri May 29 the center of ANDRES was located near 12.8, -114.8 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 7
2015-05-29 22:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 292036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 ...ANDRES STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 114.8W ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 114.8 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-05-29 22:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 292036 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-05-29 22:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292036 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 114.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-05-29 16:49:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291449 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 900 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 Andres is just below hurricane strength. Although an eye feature is no longer apparent in infrared and visible satellite images, the associated convection has been deepening during the past few hours. Microwave images show that the structure of Andres is asymmetric with well-defined banding to the south of the center and limited more fragmented bands to the north of the center. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates and ADT values still yield an intensity estimate of 60 kt. The SHIPS model indicates that Andres is currently experiencing about 15 kt of northerly shear, which is likely part of the reason why the storm has leveled off in intensity for the time being. This shear is expected to persist for another 12 to 24 hours, but it should lessen some thereafter. Therefore, slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days while the cyclone remains over warm water. Beyond a couple of days, Andres is expected to move over cooler water and into a drier and more stable airmass. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the system to weaken. The official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and lies at the high end of the model guidance. Andres continues on a west-northwestward track at about 8 kt. A weakness in the subtropical ridge should cause the storm to move northwestward during the next day or two. After that time, a turn back to the west-northwest is predicted when the ridge restrengthens to the north of the storm. The model guidance is in good agreement overall, and the official forecast is similar to the previous one and lies close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 12.5N 114.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 13.3N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.3N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 15.4N 117.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 16.2N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 17.3N 121.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 18.2N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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