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Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-30 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 29 the center of GASTON was located near 31.6, -54.6 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 30
2016-08-30 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 300232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016 ...GASTON MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 54.6W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1620 MI...2605 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gaston was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 54.6 West. Gaston is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). The hurricane is expected to move toward the northeast or east-northeast at an increasing forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane GASTON Graphics
2016-08-29 22:45:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 20:45:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 20:43:33 GMT
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 29
2016-08-29 22:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 292044 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016 Gaston's satellite presentation continues to slowly degrade, with the latest microwave data suggesting it could be undergoing an eyewall replacement. The initial wind speed is lowered to 90 kt in accordance with the latest satellite estimates. Little change in intensity is expected for the next couple of days while Gaston remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear, although the eyewall cycle adds a wrinkle to the forecast. In a couple of days, a gradual increase in shear, along with a decrease in SSTs, should cause a more significant weakening. Intensity guidance is a bit lower than 6 hours ago, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows that trend. Gaston appears to be moving a bit faster, now north-northeastward at 3 kt. Due to a ridge becoming established to the southeast of the cyclone, Gaston should accelerate to the east-northeast over the next few days. The end of the forecast is tricky, with some uncertainties over how Gaston interacts with the mid-latitude westerlies and the strength of an eastern Atlantic ridge. While the overall guidance suite has shifted somewhat to the north at days 4 and 5, the ECMWF has been more consistent during the past few days and has stayed farther south. Thus, the new forecast is on the southern side of the guidance envelope, to the south of the model consensus at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 31.2N 55.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 31.6N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 32.2N 52.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 33.2N 50.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 34.6N 48.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 37.7N 39.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 38.5N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 40.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2016-08-29 22:43:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 292043 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 6(32) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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