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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 21

2016-08-27 22:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 272039 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 ...GASTON SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 54.0W ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 54.0 West. Gaston is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Gaston is expected to become a hurricane later tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2016-08-27 22:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 272039 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 21

2016-08-27 22:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 272038 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 54.0W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 54.0W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 53.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 54.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.7N 55.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.0N 55.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.4N 54.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 37.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 54.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 20

2016-08-27 16:41:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 271440 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 A 0954Z WindSAT microwave image indicated that Gaston had developed a 15-nmi-diameter low-level eye that was embedded in the center of the nearly circular central dense overcast. Subjective satellite intensity estimates are T4.0/65 kt and T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value is T3.7/59 kt. An average of these estimates supports increasing the initial intensity to 60 kt. As anticipated, Gaston has slowed down and the motion estimate is now 310/09 kt. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a northwestward motion and continue to decelerate during the next 48 hours as Gaston moves into a break in the subtropical ridge located to its north. A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward from Canada and the northeastern United States by 72 hours, and force Gaston to make a sharp turn toward the north and northeast when the cyclone is located several hundred miles east of Bermuda. On days 4 and 5, Gaston is expected to get caught up in the deep-layer mid- latitude westerlies and accelerate east-northeastward over the North Atlantic. The new official forecast track is a little slower than the previous advisory track and has been shifted a little to the east, but not nearly as far east as the consensus model TVCN out of respect for the ECWMF model, which is close to the previous forecast track. Gaston has maintained two pronounced upper-level outflow jets to its east and southwest. These jets are flowing into large upper-level lows that are acting as significant mass sinks, a pattern that favors intensification. Although the mid-level environment is expected to be characterized by low humidity values of 40-45 percent during the next 72 hours, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs of 29C and remain in a low vertical wind shear regime. Those latter conditions, along with the small eye feature and the outflow jet pattern should allow Gaston to overcome the dry conditions and result in strengthening at a typical rate of about 20 kt per day. By days 4 and 5, the vertical shear is forecast to increase sharply and become westerly at more than 30 kt, which should induce a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the consensus model IVCN through 36 hours, and a little above IVCN and close to the SHIPS/LGEM models after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 28.4N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 29.3N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 30.1N 55.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 30.7N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 31.3N 56.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 32.6N 54.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 34.2N 49.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 36.9N 43.7W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

2016-08-27 16:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 271440 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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