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Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 22
2016-08-28 04:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 280251 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 ...GASTON AGAIN A HURRICANE, NOW WITH 85-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 54.2W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 54.2 West. Gaston is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). Gaston should slow down during the next day or so, with a turn toward the north forecast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 22
2016-08-28 04:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 280251 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 54.2W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 54.2W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 54.1W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.1N 54.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.7N 55.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.0N 55.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.4N 54.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.6N 52.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 34.6N 48.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 54.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
2016-08-27 22:44:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 20:44:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 20:39:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 21
2016-08-27 22:40:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 272040 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 The inner-core convection of Gaston has continued to increase with the CDO having expanded and become more symmetrical. Subjective satellite intensity estimates remain T4.0/65 kt and T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value is T3.9/63 kt. An average of these estimates supports maintaining the initial intensity at 60 kt, which could be conservative. Gaston's initial motion estimate is 320/08 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track reasoning. Gaston is expected to continue moving northwestward and gradually decelerate during the next two days as the cyclone moves into a break in the Bermuda-Azores ridge. A shortwave trough and associated frontal system is forecast to approach Gaston by 72 hours and slowly lift out the tropical cyclone to the north and northeast. On days 4 and 5, Gaston is expected to get caught up in the mid-latitude westerly flow ahead of the aforementioned frontal system and accelerate east-northeastward. The new NHC track model guidance is in much better agreement now that the ECMWF model has made a significant eastward shift in its track forecast and is much closer to the previous advisory track. The new official forecast track was only shifted eastward slightly to come more in line with the consensus models TVCN and GFEX. However, the track shift also resulted in a significant decrease in the forward speed on days 3, 4, and 5. The global and regional models continue to indicate that Gaston will remain in a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern for at least the next 72 hours. In fact, the Navy-COAMPS, GFS, and ECMWF models forecast Gaston to become a major hurricane by 72-120 h, with the ECMWF forecasting a central pressure of 945 mb on day 5. In contrast, the HWRF and the statistical-dynamical models SHIPS/LGEM only bring Gaston up to 85-90 kt. Due to the possibility of occasional dry air intrusions, with mid-level humidity values in the 40-percent range, weakening the inner-core convection, the official intensity forecast remains unchanged and on the conservative side through 72 hours, which is slightly above the consensus model IVCN. On days 4 and 5, strong westerly shear of about 30 kt should induce weakening, which also argues against this system becoming a major hurricane at that time like the ECMWF model is predicting, and the forecast is a little lower than the consensus on those days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 29.2N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 30.0N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 30.7N 55.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 31.0N 55.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 31.4N 54.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 32.5N 53.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 34.0N 50.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 37.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-27 22:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 27 the center of GASTON was located near 29.2, -54.0 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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