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Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 28
2016-08-29 16:46:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 291446 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016 ...GASTON EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 55.4W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1680 MI...2705 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 55.4 West. Gaston is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected by tonight, and an east-northeastward motion is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Little significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2016-08-29 16:46:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 291446 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 12(29) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 28
2016-08-29 16:45:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 291444 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1500 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 55.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 55.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 55.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.3N 55.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.9N 53.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.6N 51.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 33.7N 49.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.7N 42.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 38.0N 35.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 39.0N 30.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 55.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2016-08-29 11:20:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 290919 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 17(30) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-08-29 10:59:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 290858 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016 Gaston remains a well-organized hurricane. However, the satellite appearance is slightly less impressive than 6 hours ago, with the eye becoming less distinct and the deep convection eroding in the northwestern quadrant. While the various satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the last advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt based on the degraded appearance. The hurricane is currently drifting northward. A slow motion is likely to continue for the next 12 hours or so as Gaston is caught between two segments of the subtropical ridge. After that time, a mid-latitude trough moving southeastward from eastern Canada is expected to weaken the ridge northwest of Gaston, allowing the cyclone to move generally east-northeastward along the southern edge of the westerlies. The model guidance remains tightly packed through 72 hours, and little change was made to the previous forecast for that time. After 72 hours, the guidance envelope has shifted a little to the north, and the forecast track was likewise nudged to stay near the middle of the guidance envelope. Gaston is expected to remain is a light shear/warm water environment for the first 24 hours. During this time, the intensity forecast calls for slight weakening due to dry air entrainment and the possibility that the slow-moving hurricane will upwell cold water. After 24 hours, Gaston is likely to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into increasing shear, which should cause a gradual weakening. The new forecast intensity is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 30.8N 55.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 31.1N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 31.8N 54.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 32.5N 52.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 33.5N 50.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 36.5N 44.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 38.0N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 38.5N 30.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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