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Tropical Storm Julio Graphics

2020-09-06 16:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 14:34:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 14:34:27 GMT

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Tropical Storm Julio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2020-09-06 16:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 061432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 50 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 110W 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 6( 6) 39(45) 5(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Storm Julio (EP5/EP152020)

2020-09-06 16:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...JULIO ACCELERATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 the center of Julio was located near 19.2, -108.8 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Julio Public Advisory Number 4

2020-09-06 16:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 061431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julio Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 ...JULIO ACCELERATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 108.8W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julio was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 108.8 West. Julio is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). A fast west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west at a slower forward speed on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Only small fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-09-06 16:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 061431 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.8W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.8W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.3N 113.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.4N 115.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.2N 115.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 116.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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