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Tropical Depression Julio Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-07 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 177 WTPZ35 KNHC 070241 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Julio Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 ...JULIO DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 111.3W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julio was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 111.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further slow weakening is anticipated, and Julio is forecast to dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Julio Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-07 04:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070240 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 111.3W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 111.3W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.5N 113.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N 114.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.3N 115.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Julio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-07 04:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070240 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 34 1 16(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Julio Graphics
2020-09-06 22:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 20:37:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2020 20:37:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-06 22:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio remains a compact tropical storm that is producing a small area of deep convection near and to the west of the center. A recent ASCAT-A overpass showed maximum winds around 30 kt, which was lower than in previous passes. Based on that data and the latest Dvorak classifications, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. The ASCAT data also suggest that the circulation of Julio is not as well defined on the south side as it was earlier. As mentioned in the previous discussion, Julio's future is somewhat unclear. The ECMWF and UKMET models show Julio becoming absorbed by a larger low just to its southwest in a couple of days. Conversely, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show Julio being the dominant feature, with the latter two aids even showing strengthening. Since confidence is low on which scenario will play out, it seems best to hold continuity for now, which ends up leaning closer to the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one given the lower initial intensity. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 17 kt. Julio should continue to move westward to west-northwestward at a fairly quick pace for another 12-24 hours. However, after that time, a notable slow down should occur as the ridge over the eastern Pacific breaks down and leaves the cyclone in weak steering currents. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 19.3N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 19.6N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 19.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 19.6N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.4N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 19.2N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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