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Remnants of Julio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-07 10:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070838 PWSEP5 REMNANTS OF JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF JULIO WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS... 30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Remnants of Julio Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-07 10:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070838 TCMEP5 REMNANTS OF JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.6W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.6W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 112.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Julio Graphics
2020-09-07 04:42:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 02:42:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 03:31:42 GMT
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Tropical Depression Julio Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-07 04:41:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 595 WTPZ45 KNHC 070241 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Julio Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio is losing organization. A small area of deep convection remains near the assumed center, which is best identified by SSMIS microwave data a few hours ago. However, Socorro Island, located about 30 miles south of the center, never showed any westerly winds. While it is possible the system has already opened up into a trough, advisories are being continued on the assumption that the island missed the small system's circulation. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt due to the decay in overall satellite presentation. The depression is moving westward at a slower speed than before, roughly 11 kt. This motion is expected tomorrow at a slower speed as a ridge breaks down to the north of the cyclone. Afterwards, since the tropical cyclone is so small, a larger surface low to the southwest of the system seems likely to weaken Julio and then absorb the tropical cyclone in a couple of days. Thus the track forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, and the new intensity forecast is reduced as well. A plausible alternative scenario is that overnight scatterometer data will show that the system has already degenerated into a surface trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 19.4N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 19.5N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 19.5N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 19.3N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Julio (EP5/EP152020)
2020-09-07 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 the center of Julio was located near 19.4, -111.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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