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Tropical Storm Julio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-06 22:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 115W 34 X 13(13) 28(41) 2(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Julio (EP5/EP152020)
2020-09-06 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COMPACT JULIO MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 the center of Julio was located near 19.3, -110.0 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Julio Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-06 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julio Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 ...COMPACT JULIO MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 110.0W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julio was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 110.0 West. Julio is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A fairly quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through early Monday. A much slower westward motion is forecast after that. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-06 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 062032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.6N 112.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.6N 115.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.4N 116.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.2N 116.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 110.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-06 16:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio has surprisingly accelerated west-northwestward during the past few hours, moving around the northeast periphery of a broad trough of low pressure. The tiny tropical storm continues to produce small but frequent bursts of central convection and has not changed appreciably since the most recent ASCAT pass that supported an intensity of 40 kt. Julio's future is unusually unclear for a system that is forecast to dissipate. The global models are struggling to resolve Julio, and only the ECMWF has a realistic current depiction of the cyclone. Those models universally indicate that Julio will either dissipate or be absorbed by the aforementioned broad area of low pressure located to its southwest within the next 24 to 36 hours. This is certainly plausible given Julio's small size and limited convection. On the other hand, the HWRF and HMON models now indicate that Julio will not only persist through day 5, but potentially strengthen when upper-level winds are forecast to become less hostile in a couple days. The disagreement can not be explained entirely by model resolution as the COAMPS-TC also weakens Julio. I see no clear reason to support one solution over another at this point. Therefore, the official forecast continues to show dissipation for now, though the intensity has been hedged slightly higher at 48 h and 60 h. The NHC track forecast leans heavily on the HWRF and HMON models and has been adjusted significantly faster for the first 24 h due to Julio's recent acceleration. Much larger changes may be required to the forecast later today or tonight if it becomes more likely that Julio will persist longer than currently indicated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 19.2N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 20.3N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 20.4N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 20.2N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 20.2N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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