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Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-09-20 10:41:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 200841 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-09-20 10:40:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 200840 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 59.5W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 59.5W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 58.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.7N 61.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.4N 67.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.2N 68.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N 68.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.2N 67.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 28.5N 66.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 59.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Peter Graphics
2021-09-20 04:51:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 02:51:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 03:22:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-20 04:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 200251 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 Peter is a sheared tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that an earlier convective burst near the center of Peter has collapsed tonight. Although the low-level center is now displaced at least 60 n mi west of the edge of the convective cloud mass, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Peter has found the cyclone is a bit stronger tonight. The aircraft measured flight-level (925 mb) winds of 58 kt and SFMR winds of 45 kt or so. These data support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. Peter's wind field is very asymmetric, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 120 n mi from the center only in its northeast quadrant. The moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear that is plaguing the system is forecast to persist during the next several days. Thus, despite sufficient oceanic heat content along its forecast track, the official NHC intensity forecast does not show any further intensification. In fact, some gradual weakening is forecast since the system appears likely to struggle sustaining organized convection near its center, as suggested by GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery. The official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward in the near-term to account for the stronger initial intensity, but otherwise closely follows the HCCA and IVCN aids and shows gradual weakening this week. While the official NHC forecast shows Peter remaining a tropical cyclone through the forecast period, the GFS suggests Peter could struggle to even maintain its closed low-level circulation in the coming days. Therefore, it is plausible that the cyclone could degenerate into an open wave and weaken somewhat quicker than forecast. Peter is moving west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt, along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. This general motion should continue for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the track forecast becomes more challenging. A low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build over the western Atlantic by midweek, which would keep the weakening cyclone on a more northwestward trajectory. But, a mid-level shortwave is forecast to drop southward and erode the southern extent of the ridge, which should eventually draw Peter more northward during the middle and latter parts of the week. There is more spread noted in the track guidance at days 3-5, as the timing of this northward turn is uncertain. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one, and it lies near the center of the guidance envelope and closer to the TVCA and HCCA aids. Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.6N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.3N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 21.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 22.0N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 23.0N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 23.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 25.7N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 28.0N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)
2021-09-20 04:49:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND PETER A LITTLE STRONGER... ...PETER EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 19 the center of Peter was located near 18.6, -58.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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