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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-09-20 16:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 235 WTNT21 KNHC 201444 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 60.9W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 60.9W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 60.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.8N 66.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.7N 67.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N 68.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 68.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.5N 67.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.6N 66.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 60.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-09-20 10:48:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 200848 CCA TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 7...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Corrected name of storm in first and second paragraphs Peter is a strongly sheared tropical storm. Reconnaissance wind data, conventional satellite imagery, and passive microwave satellite data indicate that Peter's center is located just to the west of the deep convection. Data from the aircraft support holding the intensity at 45 kt for now based on 925-mb flight-level and SFMR winds of 53 kt and 41 kt, respectively, on their last leg when the aircraft came in from the northeast. The central pressure had also increased only slightly to 1006 mb. Peter has continued to move west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Peter is expected to move around the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next couple of days, followed by a slow northward motion on days 3-5 as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the ridge induced by the southward-moving former Tropical Storm Odette. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies just to the east of the tightly packed consensus track models. Some fluctuations in intensity will be possible during the next 24-36 hours owing to 5-10 kt fluctuations in the magnitude and also the direction of the deep-layer vertical wind shear. However, by 48 hours and beyond, a slow weakening trend is expected due to the shear increasing from the southwest and west-southwest of near 30 kt. The new official intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations. Key Messages: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 19.1N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 19.7N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 22.4N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 23.2N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 24.2N 68.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 26.2N 67.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 28.5N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Peter Graphics
2021-09-20 10:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 08:42:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 09:23:22 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)
2021-09-20 10:41:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS PETER HAS CHANGED LITTLE... ...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Peter was located near 19.1, -59.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 7
2021-09-20 10:41:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 200841 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS PETER HAS CHANGED LITTLE... ...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 59.5W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 59.5 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km), primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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