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Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-09-22 16:41:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 221441 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1500 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 66.9W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 66.9W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 66.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 67.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.3N 67.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.2N 66.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.1N 66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.3N 65.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 66.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Peter Graphics
2021-09-22 10:41:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:41:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 09:22:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-09-22 10:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220840 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Peter is a disorganized tropical depression. The low-level center is fully exposed and currently located a couple of hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Most of the associated thunderstorm activity remains displaced well east of the center due to about 30 kt of westerly shear. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a 0206 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed a swath of 25-30 kt winds about 60 n mi north of the center. The ASCAT data also showed that the circulation has become quite elongated. Since the hostile conditions of strong westerly shear and dry air entrainment are not expected to let up, a continued gradual decay of Peter is forecast. The system is still predicted to become a remnant low in 36 hours and dissipate in a few days, but both of these could occur sooner. The depression is moving northwestward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 310/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by tonight and then northeastward by the end of the week as the system moves in the flow on the east side of a deep-layer trough. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and close to an average of the GFS and ECMWF models. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Thursday morning across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 21.5N 66.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.2N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 23.2N 66.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 24.1N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 25.1N 65.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1800Z 26.5N 64.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Peter (AT1/AL162021)
2021-09-22 10:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED PETER EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Peter was located near 21.5, -66.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Peter Public Advisory Number 15
2021-09-22 10:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220834 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED PETER EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 66.1W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 66.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a north-northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter could produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with storm total accumulations up to 9 inches, across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and northern portions of Hispaniola through Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to the Bahamas later today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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