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Tropical Storm Peter Graphics
2021-09-20 16:45:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 14:45:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 15:22:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-09-20 16:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 201444 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 West-southwesterly vertical wind shear on the order of 30 kt is pummeling Peter this morning. Just like yesterday morning, the low-level center of the storm is pulling away from the deep convection and is now displaced greater than 80 n mi. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Peter this morning and has measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and several SFMR values of 40-45 kt, supporting keeping the initial intensity at 45 kt for this advisory. Peter refuses to slow down, and for the past several hours has been moving 290/14 kt. This west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next two days as the system remains to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, Peter should slow down and turn northwest then north as it reaches a developing weakness in the ridge carved out by a mid-latitude trough moving across the northeastern United States later this week. The model track guidance has shifted slightly left for the 24-72 h time frames, and the NHC forecast track was nudged in that direction as well. Otherwise, the latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one. An upper-level trough to the west of Peter is forecast to remain near the cyclone for the next few days, keeping the storm in a high-shear environment. Therefore, despite being over warm waters the storm is forecast to slowly weaken. If Peter survives the next 72 h, there could be a window of opportunity late in the forecast period for some modest strengthening as the cyclone would have lifted to the north of the upper trough. It should be noted that a vast majority of the GFS ensembles show Peter dissipating later this week as the system opens into a wave. This scenario is plausible, especially if deep convection fails to persist near the center of the cyclone. The latest NHC intensity forecast assumes Peter survives, and closely follows the various intensity consensus solutions. Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible today and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.5N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.8N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.8N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.7N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 23.5N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 24.5N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 26.5N 67.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 28.6N 66.4W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-09-20 16:44:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 201444 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)
2021-09-20 16:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PETER BATTLING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE WIND SHEAR... ...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Peter was located near 19.5, -60.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 8
2021-09-20 16:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 236 WTNT31 KNHC 201444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...PETER BATTLING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE WIND SHEAR... ...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 60.9W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 60.9 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico through Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of Hispaniola through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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