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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Graphics
2013-11-19 16:07:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Nov 2013 14:42:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Nov 2013 15:03:44 GMT
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melissa
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Summary for Subtropical Storm MELISSA (AT4/AL142013)
2013-11-19 15:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Nov 19 the center of MELISSA was located near 31.9, -54.6 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Public Advisory Number 5
2013-11-19 15:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 191441 TCPAT4 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013 ...MELISSA STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 54.6W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...AND MELISSA IS ANTICIPATED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM...FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2013-11-19 15:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 191441 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1500 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 54.6W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......240NE 170SE 170SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 600SE 600SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 54.6W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.9N 52.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 170SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 36.6N 48.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.5N 43.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 220SE 200SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 42.2N 37.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 46.5N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 53.2N 26.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 54.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-11-19 15:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 191441 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1500 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 4 8 12 NA TROP DEPRESSION X 3 9 17 23 29 NA TROPICAL STORM 73 65 69 65 58 53 NA HURRICANE 27 32 21 15 11 6 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 26 30 19 13 10 6 NA HUR CAT 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 60KT 55KT 50KT 45KT 40KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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