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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-11-19 09:36:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 190836 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0900 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 54.6W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT.......270NE 240SE 180SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 570SE 570SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 54.6W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 32.6N 53.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 35.3N 50.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 38.4N 45.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 41.3N 39.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 210SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 46.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 52.0N 27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 54.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Graphics
2013-11-19 04:07:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Nov 2013 03:00:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Nov 2013 03:03:44 GMT
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-11-19 03:58:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190257 TCDAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013 DEEP CONVECTION IN MELISSA REMAINS QUITE ASYMMETRIC WITH A NARROW BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 60-90 NM ALONG WITH A LARGER BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE A FEW HUNDRED MILES FROM THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MELISSA REMAINS INTERTWINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...THUS A SUBTROPICAL STORM STATUS STILL APPEARS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. A TIMELY 0030 UTC PARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS PROVIDED PEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT. THIS ALONG WITH THE TAFB HEBERT-POTEAT SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION OF 3.0...45-50 KT...HELPED TO DETERMINE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. MELISSA IS MOVING AT 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA CURRENT HELPS KICK OUT MELISSA INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR...BUT THEN DIVERGES DEPENDING IN PART ON HOW MUCH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. THE GFS AND DEPENDENT MESOSCALE HURRICANE MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER TRANSITION...WHICH THEN WRAPS MELISSA NORTHWARD QUICKER. THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM KEEP MELISSA FARTHER EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND DISSIPATE IT BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THREE DAYS...BUT THEN FASTER AND FARTHER EAST THEREAFTER. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRACK IS BASED IN LARGE PART UPON INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. MELISSA HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO LESSEN FOR ABOUT A DAY WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER LUKEWARM WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE CENTER AND A DEEP WARM CORE TO DEVELOP FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR...AS ALSO INDICATED BY THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS. IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE RAPIDLY DROPPING SSTS THAT MELISSA WILL ENCOUNTER COUPLED WITH MUCH STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO CEASE. THUS A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW IS INDICATED AT 48 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH A FULL EXTRATROPICAL STAGE IS PREDICTED TO OCCUR AROUND THREE DAYS. BY DAY FIVE...MELISSA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS ALSO ALLOWED FOR A MORE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 30.3N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 31.3N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 33.6N 52.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 36.4N 48.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 39.8N 43.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 22/0000Z 46.0N 33.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/0000Z 53.5N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Subtropical Storm MELISSA (AT4/AL142013)
2013-11-19 03:57:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA CONTINUES AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Nov 18 the center of MELISSA was located near 30.3, -54.7 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Public Advisory Number 3
2013-11-19 03:57:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 190257 TCPAT4 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013 ...MELISSA CONTINUES AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 54.7W ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT A SUBSTANTIALLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AND MELISSA IS ANTICIPATED TO TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL STORM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM FROM THE CENTER. MELISSA IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN A LARGE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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