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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Public Advisory Number 8
2013-11-20 09:35:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 200835 TCPAT4 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 500 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013 ...MELISSA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 50.2W ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MELISSA COULD TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. MELISSA IS EXPECTED BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Advisory Number 8
2013-11-20 09:34:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 200834 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0900 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 50.2W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 180SE 160SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 470SE 450SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 50.2W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 36.8N 46.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.3N 40.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 41.4N 34.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 43.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 45.0N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...300NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Graphics
2013-11-20 04:07:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2013 02:39:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2013 03:03:44 GMT
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-11-20 03:38:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 200238 TCDAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MELISSA IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN A FEW HOURS AGO...WITH JUST A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION FORMING NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY MORE TROPICAL THAN EARLIER...SO IT IS BEING KEPT AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH ASCAT DATA AND THE LATEST TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE. ALTHOUGH MELISSA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS SOON...A LARGE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND SOME NON-TROPICAL FORCING COULD OFFSET THE DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES. THUS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION...AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MELISSA COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO EXTREMELY COLD WATER AND LOSS OF BAROCLINIC FORCING. MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS DUE TO THE COLDER WATERS...AND INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE STORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48H AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE LATEST CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD... AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW AND/OR ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WITHIN 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 33.6N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 35.7N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 38.4N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 40.8N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 22/0000Z 43.0N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/0000Z 48.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0000Z 54.0N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Subtropical Storm MELISSA (AT4/AL142013)
2013-11-20 03:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA LOSING STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Nov 19 the center of MELISSA was located near 33.6, -52.4 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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