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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Graphics
2013-11-19 10:07:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Nov 2013 08:37:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Nov 2013 09:03:47 GMT
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-11-19 09:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190849 TCDAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 500 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013 MELISSA APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS NOT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION...A FEW BANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR AND THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE CONTRACTING WHILE IT SEPARATES FROM THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS COULD ALLOW MELISSA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AND TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD COME TO AN END IN 24 TO 36 HOURS WHEN THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. MELISSA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 18 C. THE SUBTROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 360/8 KT. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO MELISSA...AND WILL HELP ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE IS A NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT IN HOW THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT OF MELISSA INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CYCLONE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OR LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING MORE EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 31.2N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 32.6N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 35.3N 50.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 38.4N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 41.3N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 22/0600Z 46.5N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/0600Z 52.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Subtropical Storm MELISSA (AT4/AL142013)
2013-11-19 09:40:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND TURNS NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Nov 19 the center of MELISSA was located near 31.2, -54.6 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Public Advisory Number 4
2013-11-19 09:40:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 190839 TCPAT4 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 500 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013 ...MELISSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND TURNS NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 54.6W ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...AND MELISSA IS ANTICIPATED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-11-19 09:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 190836 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0900 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 3 9 12 NA TROP DEPRESSION X 3 9 12 23 30 NA TROPICAL STORM 73 65 69 64 58 52 NA HURRICANE 27 32 21 22 10 6 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 26 30 19 19 9 6 NA HUR CAT 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 60KT 55KT 55KT 45KT 40KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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