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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-09-28 22:47:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 295 WTNT43 KNHC 282047 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 Central convection associated with Post-Tropical Storm Leslie has gradually increased during the last couple of days and is now organized into a group of bands that wraps most of the way around the center. In addition, scatterometer data show that the cyclone has lost much of its large baroclinic wind field, and that the radius of maximum winds has contracted from 120-180 n mi yesterday to 90 n mi or less today. While the storm has also developed a warm core and shed some of its baroclinic characteristics, it is embedded in a large deep-layer low pressure system, and thus it is designated subtropical instead of tropical. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on the scatterometer data. Leslie has been moving generally westward for the the past few days. The large-scale models forecast a general southwesterly motion for the next 3-4 days as the cyclone is steered by a segment of the subtropical ridge to its west and another large deep-layer low forming to its east over the eastern Atlantic, with a decrease in forward speed near the end of the forecast period as the ridge to the west weakens. The forecast guidance is tightly clustered through 120 h, and the forecast track is near the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models. The forecast track takes the center of Leslie over increasing sea surface temperatures during the next several days, although the temperatures may not be as warm as those indicated in the SHIPS model. The global models suggest that little change in strength will occur during the first 48-72 h as Leslie gradually develops the upper-level outflow pattern of a tropical cyclone and transitions to a tropical storm. After that time, they are in good agreement that the cyclone will strengthen. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows only modest intensification during the first 48 h, followed by strengthening to a probably conservative 60 kt. The forecast also calls for transition to a tropical storm between 48-72 h, with the caveat that this could occur earlier. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 36.1N 48.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 35.4N 49.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 34.4N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 33.8N 52.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 33.2N 53.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 32.5N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 96H 02/1800Z 31.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 31.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-09-28 22:46:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 999 FONT13 KNHC 282046 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-28 22:46:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE REGAINS SUBTROPICAL STORM STATUS... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 28 the center of Leslie was located near 36.1, -48.1 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 10
2018-09-28 22:46:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 613 WTNT33 KNHC 282046 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE REGAINS SUBTROPICAL STORM STATUS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 48.1W ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 48.1 West. The storm is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the southwest is expected tonight through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-09-28 22:45:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 462 WTNT23 KNHC 282045 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 48.1W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......220NE 180SE 180SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 960SW 660NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 48.1W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 47.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 35.4N 49.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 180SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 34.4N 51.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.8N 52.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.2N 53.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.5N 54.5W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 31.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 48.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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