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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-09-24 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 104 WTNT23 KNHC 240831 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 48.6W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 48.6W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 48.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.6N 48.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.6N 46.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.5N 44.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.7N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 48.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-09-24 10:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 021 FONT13 KNHC 240831 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-09-24 04:45:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 02:45:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 03:28:10 GMT
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-24 04:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Leslie was located near 33.3, -48.5 with movement SW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 3
2018-09-24 04:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 254 WTNT33 KNHC 240244 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 48.5W ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 48.5 West. The storm is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and little motion is anticipated through Monday. An eastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Leslie is forecast to be merge with a larger non-tropical low by the middle of the week. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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