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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-24 04:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 255 WTNT43 KNHC 240244 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 There has been little change in the organization of the subtropical cyclone over the past several hours. Patches of deep convection continue to develop over the southeastern portion of the circulation but there is a lack of convective banding elsewhere. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, which is based on a partial ASCAT pass that detected 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the storm this evening. Leslie is not forecast to strengthen over the next day or so due to dry air and moderate vertical shear. By 48 hours, some increase in wind is predicted as Leslie interacts with an approaching baroclinic zone. Leslie jogged west-southwestward for a few hours this evening, but has since turned southwestward and slowed down. The system is forecast to move little over the next 24 hours, then begin a faster eastward motion on Monday night and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough and associated cold front digs southeastward over the central Atlantic. The global models indicate that the front will overtake Leslie in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become an extratropical low at that time. The evolution of the system becomes even more complex after that, as the GFS shows Leslie being absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure area to the north, while some of other global models maintain post-tropical Leslie as the primary low pressure area. For now, the NHC forecast maintains continuity with the previous advisories and calls for the system to merge with the larger front/low by 72 h, but there is a high level of uncertainty in the exact evolution and structure of the system. Regardless of the details of the evolution, a large non-tropical low pressure area with gale- to storm-force winds is expected to be over the east-central Atlantic later this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 33.3N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 33.1N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 33.1N 47.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 32.9N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-09-24 04:44:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 228 FONT13 KNHC 240244 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-09-24 04:43:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 536 WTNT23 KNHC 240243 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 48.5W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 48.5W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 33.1N 48.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 33.1N 47.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.9N 46.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-23 23:25:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:30 PM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Leslie was located near 33.5, -47.2 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Update Statement
2018-09-23 23:25:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 530 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 105 WTNT63 KNHC 232125 TCUAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 530 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 A Tropical Cyclone Update statement containing pre-formatted information was inadvertently transmitted under the Subtropical Storm Leslie header. Please disregard that product and refer to the 500 PM AST (2100 UTC) Public Advisory for the latest information on Leslie, which is also shown below. SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 47.2W ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown
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