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Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-09-13 04:43:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 776 WTNT25 KNHC 130243 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 42.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 42.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.5N 43.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 43.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.3N 43.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 34.2N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 37.0N 33.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 42.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2018-09-12 22:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 20:42:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 20:42:04 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-12 22:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 973 WTNT45 KNHC 122040 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 The strong low pressure system which the NHC has been monitoring in the north Atlantic for a couple of days has developed a cyclonically curved band of deep convection near the center, and scatterometer data indicate that the winds are near 40 kt. Since the system is still vertically stacked with an upper-low, it is then classified as a subtropical cyclone at this time. However, the cyclone is gaining organization while it is acquiring tropical characteristics. The NHC forecast calls for Joyce to transform into a tropical system in about 12 to 24 hours. Since the ocean is warm, some slight strengthening is possible during the next 3 days. After that time, Joyce will be over cooler waters and should then be absorbed by a larger extratropical low. Joyce has been moving southwestward or 225 degrees at 5 kt, steered by the northerly flow around the subtropical high which has been steering Florence and to west of the mid-latitude trough which is forcing Helene to recurve. In a couple of days, global models indicate that the steering pattern will change as the trough amplifies, and Joyce should then turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 34.3N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 33.7N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 13/1800Z 33.0N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 32.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 32.5N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 34.0N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 37.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-12 22:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 911 FONT15 KNHC 122040 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Subtropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-12 22:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 12 the center of Joyce was located near 34.3, -41.9 with movement SW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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