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Summary for Subtropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)
2018-08-16 16:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERNESTO HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 42.0, -43.2 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 6
2018-08-16 16:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 168 WTNT35 KNHC 161451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 ...ERNESTO HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.0N 43.2W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 43.2 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A significantly faster northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) primarily to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-08-16 16:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 169 WTNT25 KNHC 161451 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 43.2W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 170SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 43.2W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 43.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.9N 40.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.7N 35.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 49.5N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 52.0N 19.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.0N 43.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
2018-08-16 10:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 08:33:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 09:22:06 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-16 10:32:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 645 WTNT45 KNHC 160832 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 Ernesto has generally changed little during the past several hours. The subtropical storm continues to produce patches of convection in curved bands around the center. The circulation of the system is becoming a little elongated from north to south, and dry air is wrapping into the western portion of the system. The initial wind speed is again held at 35 kt, in agreement with the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The subtropical storm has a limited amount of time to strengthen as it will remain over marginally warm waters and in a low wind shear environment for only another 12 hours. After that time, the cyclone is expected to cross over a sharp SST gradient and move into an environment of higher shear. These conditions should cause Ernesto to lose its tropical characteristics in about 24 hours, when the SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to be near 20 deg C. The post-tropical system will likely maintain its intensity, due in part to its fast forward speed, until it merges with a frontal zone near the United Kingdom this weekend. The storm continues to gradually speed up, and it is now moving north-northeastward at 11 kt. A turn to the northeast with a significant increase in forward speed is expected later today and Friday as a pair of shortwave troughs approach the storm, causing the system to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The models remain in fairly good agreement, and this track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 40.8N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 42.4N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 45.0N 37.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 17/1800Z 47.8N 31.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0600Z 50.6N 23.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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