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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 1
2019-10-17 16:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 171456 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 95.7W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to Clearwater, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida * Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 95.7 West. The system is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf coast Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening then expected through Friday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by late Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-10-17 16:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 171456 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 95.7W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 95.7W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.7N 94.2W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.8N 91.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.5N 88.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.9N 85.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...190NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N 77.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 37.5N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 95.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Forecast Information (.shp)
2019-10-16 19:55:06| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Wed, 16 Oct 2019 17:55:06 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Best Track Information (.shp)
2019-10-16 19:54:57| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Wed, 16 Oct 2019 17:54:57 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Best Track Information (.kmz)
2019-10-16 19:54:57| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Wed, 16 Oct 2019 17:54:57 GMT
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