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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics
2019-10-18 04:38:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 02:38:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 03:24:40 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-10-18 04:36:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180236 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 The disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over much of the central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The system is not yet a tropical or subtropical cyclone as it still lacks sufficient convective organization and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that flew into the disturbance late this afternoon found a broad circulation, but no evidence of a well-defined center. The global models indicate that the circulation will become better defined by early Friday, and that the low will deepen within an area of strong upper-level divergence to the east of an upper-level trough over southeastern Texas. As a result, strengthening is forecast while the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 to 36 hours. While the system is unlikely to develop into a classical tropical cyclone, it is expected to obtain enough organized convection to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone on Friday or Friday night before is reaches the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, the cyclone is expected to become extratropical and gradually weaken while it moves northeastward near the southeast U.S. coast. By day 5, the low is forecast to be absorbed by a front over the western Atlantic. The disturbance is moving northeastward at about 10 kt. The system should accelerate northeastward ahead of the aforementioned trough on Friday, and the northeastward motion should then continue during the next few days. The low is forecast to slow down and turn east-northeastward after 72 hours when the mid-level flow becomes more zonal. The new NHC track forecast uses a blend of the lastest global model fields and is very similar to the previous advisory. Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level beginning Friday along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by Friday afternoon along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center. 3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, mainly Friday and Friday night. Since soils across the southeast are dry, the risk of flash flooding will be confined to the immediate coast where heavier rainfall is possible. 4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 24.1N 93.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/1200Z 26.0N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 19/0000Z 28.2N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 30.2N 86.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 32.2N 82.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z 37.0N 69.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-10-18 04:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 180236 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 1(35) X(35) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 1(33) X(33) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) X(32) X(32) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) X(37) X(37) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) X(31) X(31) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) X(24) X(24) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) X(39) X(39) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) X(35) X(35) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) X(37) X(37) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 27(37) X(37) X(37) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) X(27) X(27) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20(36) X(36) X(36) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 11(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 36(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) 7(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 9( 9) 49(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 59(59) 8(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162019)
2019-10-18 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 the center of Sixteen was located near 24.1, -93.7 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 3
2019-10-18 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180236 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 ...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 93.7W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from the Aucilla River to Yankeetown has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 93.7 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Friday night and then move over portions of the southeastern United States on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm on Friday, with slow strengthening then expected through Friday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Friday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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