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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2019-10-18 10:43:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 08:43:42 GMT

Tags: map potential storm tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics

2019-10-18 10:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 08:37:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 08:37:34 GMT

Tags: potential graphics tropical sixteen

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2019-10-18 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 180833 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) X(36) X(36) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) X(29) X(29) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) X(36) X(36) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) X(37) X(37) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) X(30) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) X(30) X(30) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) X(36) X(36) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 9(27) X(27) X(27) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) X(32) X(32) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 16(36) X(36) X(36) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 11(33) X(33) X(33) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 6(35) X(35) X(35) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 16(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 3( 3) 43(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X 3( 3) 40(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 31(31) 28(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) APALACHICOLA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 35(35) 16(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 38(38) 28(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 30(30) 14(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 70(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 29 31(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number potential speed wind

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 4

2019-10-18 10:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180833 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Although the convection associated with the disturbance has increased during the past few hours, there is no evidence that a well-defined center has formed yet. One can observe several swirls of low clouds rotating within a larger gyre. Most of the global models forecast that the system will become better organized later today, and given the current trend, NHC forecasts that a tropical or most likely a subtropical cyclone will form later this morning. A reconnaissance plane will investigate the disturbance in a few hours. The disturbance is located to the east of an upper trough which is digging along the western Gulf of Mexico, and the upper-level diffluence caused by the trough should induce some strengthening during the next 24 hours or so before the system moves inland. However, the simulated convection by the GFS and the ECMWF models resembles a comma-shape pattern which is characteristic of a subtropical cyclone. After landfall, the cyclone is expected to become extratropical and gradually weaken while it moves northeastward near the southeast U.S. coast. By day 5, the low is forecast to be absorbed by a front over the western Atlantic. Since the center is not well defined, the initial motion is highly uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 12 kt. The system should accelerate later today and continue toward the northeast embedded within the flow ahead of the trough. Track models are in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope. Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level beginning today along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by later today along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center. 3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast and southeastern United States coast from today through Saturday night. Since soils across the southeast are dry, the risk of flash flooding will be confined to the immediate coast where heavier rainfall is possible. 4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 24.3N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/1800Z 26.8N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 19/0600Z 29.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 31.5N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0600Z 33.5N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0600Z 37.0N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z 37.5N 69.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion potential tropical

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162019)

2019-10-18 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Sixteen was located near 24.3, -92.5 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tags: summary potential tropical sixteen

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