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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-09-13 10:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 130857 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 11(24) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 10(25) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 7(18) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 7(21) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 6(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 4(23) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 9(25) 3(28) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 2(19) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 21(31) 10(41) 3(44) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 9(25) 3(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) 2(21) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23) 6(29) 1(30) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 5(21) 1(22) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) 4(26) 1(27) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 18(29) 10(39) 4(43) 1(44) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 9(26) 2(28) 1(29) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 14(32) 7(39) 2(41) 1(42) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 9(27) 4(31) 2(33) 1(34) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) 2(22) 1(23) 1(24) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 7(21) 1(22) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 14(14) 24(38) 5(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 12(15) 3(18) 2(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092019)
2019-09-13 10:57:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Nine was located near 24.6, -75.2 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-09-13 10:57:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130857 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 75.2W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 75.2W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 74.9W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.1N 76.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.0N 77.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.0N 79.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 28.2N 80.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.3N 81.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 31.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 32.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 75.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 3
2019-09-13 10:57:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130857 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 75.2W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Volusia-Brevard County line to the Flagler-Volusia County line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 75.2 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or over the east coast of Florida Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches. The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South Carolina...2 to 4 inches. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2019-09-13 07:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 05:35:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 03:24:34 GMT
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