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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-09-13 04:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 130256 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 4(15) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 2(17) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 1(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) 2(26) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) 2(23) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 4(32) 1(33) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 5(26) 2(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 5(25) 2(27) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 3(29) 2(31) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 4(26) 2(28) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 16(26) 3(29) 1(30) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 12(37) 3(40) 1(41) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 12(27) 2(29) 1(30) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 18(29) 8(37) 3(40) X(40) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 14(14) 13(27) 6(33) 2(35) X(35) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 4(26) 2(28) 1(29) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) 1(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) 1(17) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) 1(19) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 7(29) 1(30) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 1(15) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 4( 4) 29(33) 10(43) 2(45) 1(46) 1(47) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 9(10) 9(19) 2(21) 1(22) 1(23) 1(24) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-09-13 04:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130256 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 74.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 74.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.6N 75.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 77.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 26.5N 78.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.5N 80.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.8N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 30.8N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 74.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 2
2019-09-13 04:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130256 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 74.5W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the coast of east-central Florida from Jupiter Inlet northward to the Volusia-Brevard County line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Volusia-Brevard County line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the poorly defined center of the disturbance was located by satellite and surface observations near the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 74.5 West. The disturbance has been meandering over the southeastern Bahamas. However, the system is expected to move slowly northwestward on Friday, and continue that motion through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or over the east coast of Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: The Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum amounts around 7 inches. The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida through southeastern Georgia...2 to 4 inches. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwest Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2019-09-13 01:46:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 23:46:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 22:28:00 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092019)
2019-09-13 01:45:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY THE WEEKEND... As of 8:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Nine was located near 23.7, -74.8 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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