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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092019)
2019-09-12 22:45:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Nine was located near 23.7, -74.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 1
2019-09-12 22:45:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122045 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 74.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the following islands in the northwestern Bahamas the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. The system is expected to move toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue during the next 2 days. On this track, the system is anticipated to move across the northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or over the east coast of central Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday over the Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida north of West Palm Beach. Isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches are possible in the northwest and central Bahamas. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwest Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-09-12 22:45:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 122045 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 74.8W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 74.8W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.5N 77.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.5N 78.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.5N 80.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 31.5N 80.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 74.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Graphics
2019-09-10 16:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2019 14:45:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2019 15:24:39 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 29
2019-09-10 16:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019 759 WTNT43 KNHC 101444 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019 Gabrielle has now completed its transition to an extratropical cyclone this morning based on the latest GOES-16 satellite imagery. The center of the storm has now become exposed with convection displaced to the north of the center, and a well-defined baroclinic zone has become established in association with the low center. Thus Gabrielle is now an extratropical low, and this is the latest advisory on this system. The intensity remains 45 knots based on scatterometer data and TAFB Dvorak intensity estimates. Models are in excellent agreement that the cyclone will move northeastward and slowly weaken through midweek with the system evolving into an open trough and dissipating beyond 36 hours prior to reaching the British Isles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 43.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 11/0000Z 45.9N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/1200Z 49.2N 25.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0000Z 52.5N 16.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hamrick/Blake
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