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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 64
2019-09-09 04:43:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 090243 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 64 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is now located northeast of Newfoundland over the Labrador Sea where sea-surface temperatures are less than 10 deg C. No significant convection exists within 120 nmi of the center and, thus, Dorian has become fully extratropical. Therefore, this is the last advisory on this system. The post-tropical cyclone is now moving east-northeastward or 060/21 kt. This general motion should continue through Tuesday or until the cyclone is absorbed by a larger extratropical low. The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided guidance on the intensity and wind radii forecasts, and initial 12-ft seas radii. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken through Tuesday or until it is absorbed by a larger low. Key Messages: 1. Dorian will continue to cause some impacts across portions Atlantic Canada into early Monday morning. Storm surge impacts will gradually subside over portions of the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and western Newfoundland. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will continue over portions of southeastern Newfoundland into early Monday but should end by late Monday morning. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 52.1N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 09/1200Z 53.6N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/0000Z 55.1N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1200Z 56.6N 31.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 64
2019-09-09 04:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 09 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 090242 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 64 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC MON SEP 09 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 52.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-09 04:42:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POST-TROPICAL DORIAN MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE LABRADOR SEA AND BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 8 the center of Dorian was located near 52.1, -53.4 with movement ENE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Public Advisory Number 64
2019-09-09 04:42:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 090242 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number 64 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 ...POST-TROPICAL DORIAN MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE LABRADOR SEA AND BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...52.1N 53.4W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM N OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Center has discontinued all tropical cyclone warnings for Atlantic Canada. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian was located near latitude 52.1 North, longitude 53.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone Dorian will continue to move away from Atlantic Canada through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger low pressure system on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will continue across portions of southeastern Newfoundland until early Monday and then diminish by late Monday morning. STORM SURGE: Storm surge along the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and the West Coast of Newfoundland will continue to subside through Monday morning. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of less than 1 inch across far eastern Quebec into Newfoundland and Labrador. SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next couple of days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 64
2019-09-09 04:41:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 09 2019 545 WTNT25 KNHC 090241 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 64 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC MON SEP 09 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR ATLANTIC CANADA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 52.1N 53.4W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT.......360NE 330SE 180SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 840SE 720SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 52.1N 53.4W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 51.6N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 53.6N 48.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...420NE 390SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 55.1N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...420NE 360SE 360SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 56.6N 31.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 52.1N 53.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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