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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (AT3/AL182017)
2017-10-28 04:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 the center of Eighteen was located near 18.2, -84.4 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-10-28 04:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280240 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD... LA HABANA... CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS... CIENFUEGOS... AND VILLA CLARA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... SOUTH FLORIDA... AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 84.4W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 70SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 84.4W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 84.4W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.1N 83.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.9N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.2N 77.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.8N 73.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 84.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Public Advisory Number 2
2017-10-28 04:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 280240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 84.4W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 84.4 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northward motion is expected Saturday morning, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast later on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through Friday night. The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and landslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-10-28 04:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 280240 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MARATHON FL 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 53(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 38(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 34 X 23(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ISLE OF PINES 34 4 55(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 49(49) 4(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 8 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Graphics
2017-10-28 01:54:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2017 23:54:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2017 21:23:15 GMT
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