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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nate Public Advisory Number 21
2017-10-09 17:04:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 09 2017
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nate Public Advisory Number 20
2017-10-09 11:01:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 AM EDT MON OCT 09 2017
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria Graphics
2017-09-30 22:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2017 20:40:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2017 20:40:26 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria Forecast Discussion Number 59
2017-09-30 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 302035 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria Discussion Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 Active deep convection at the center of Maria appears to have ceased this morning after the cyclone crossed a sharp SST gradient, and SSTs below 23 deg C are unlikely to allow persistent convection to redevelop. Recent visible satellite imagery and data from a late arriving ASCAT pass at 1348 UTC indicate the presence of a sharp wind shift extending from near the center of Maria well to the northeast, suggesting that the cyclone has acquired frontal characteristics. Based on this, Maria is now classified as extratropical, and this is the last advisory. The earlier ASCAT data was used as the basis for the initial intensity of 45 kt. Maria has continued to move quickly toward the east-northeast, and all of the models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will continue on this track for the next day or two. Gradual weakening is anticipated until dissipation occurs within a larger frontal zone over the North Atlantic in about 48 hours. The NHC forecast incorporates guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 42.0N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 01/0600Z 43.8N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1800Z 46.4N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0600Z 48.9N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 59
2017-09-30 22:34:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 302034 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 59 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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