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Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Forecast Discussion Number 25
2018-06-15 22:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152035 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Bud has been without organized deep convection since around 0600 UTC, and is now a remnant low. An earlier ASCAT-B pass around 1640 UTC showed an area of 30-35 kt winds well east of the center off the coast between Altata and Topolobampo, but some of these winds could have been topographically enhanced. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this final advisory. The remnant low should gradually weaken and then dissipate shortly after landfall. ASCAT data and visible imagery suggest that the initial motion is a bit to the left of previous estimates, with the current estimate 355/09. The remnant low should continue moving northward through dissipation between a mid-level ridge to the east and an approaching longwave trough to the west. Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 25.9N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 16/0600Z 27.3N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2018-06-15 22:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152034 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUAYMAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-15 22:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...REMNANTS OF BUD EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE STATE OF SONORA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 the center of Bud was located near 25.9, -110.2 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Public Advisory Number 25
2018-06-15 22:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152034 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 ...REMNANTS OF BUD EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE STATE OF SONORA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 110.2W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 110.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of the remnant low is expected to move inland over southern Sonora tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Bud is expected to dissipate on Saturday over the high terrain of the Mexican state of Sonora. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Remnant moisture from Bud is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated totals of 3 inches across the southwestern U.S. into the southern and central Rockies through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible through tonight along the coast of mainland Mexico in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora states. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of western mainland Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Bud. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Forecast Advisory Number 25
2018-06-15 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 152033 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 110.2W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 110.2W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.3N 110.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 110.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON BUD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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