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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Graphics
2017-10-28 07:46:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 05:46:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 03:23:29 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (AT3/AL182017)
2017-10-28 07:45:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOW THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS A LITTLE WEAKER... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 the center of Eighteen was located near 18.9, -84.6 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Public Advisory Number 2A
2017-10-28 07:45:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 280544 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOW THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 84.6W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara Cuba * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 84.6 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). An acceleration toward the northeast is expected to begin later today and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba later today and move through the northwestern Bahamas tonight and early Sunday. Satellite-derived wind data indicated that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through this morning. The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and landslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Graphics
2017-10-28 04:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 02:48:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 02:48:06 GMT
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eighteen
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-10-28 04:40:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280240 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Satellite imagery shows that the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better organized with increasing convective banding in the western semicircle. However, experimental shortwave infrared data from GOES-16 appear to show the presence of multiple low cloud swirls, and it is unclear if the definition of the center has improved to the point where the system has become a tropical cyclone. Thus, the disturbance remains a potential tropical cyclone at this time. There are no recent observations of the winds near the center, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory. The initial motion is an uncertain 005/6. A deep-layer trough and developing frontal low over the northeastern United States are expected to cause the disturbance to turn northeastward and accelerate during the next 24 h, with a fast motion toward the northeast continuing until the disturbance is absorbed by the mid-latitude system. The track guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, although there remains some cross-track spread due mainly to the uncertain center position. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and is in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus model. Environmental conditions appear at least somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 48 h, with light to moderate shear and strong upper-level divergence over the system. After that time, the system is expected to be absorbed into the aforementioned mid-latitude system and become a trough rotating around the larger circulation. The new intensity forecast is nudged upward slightly from the previous forecast and now shows a peak intensity of 50 kt before absorption. However, the forecast lies at the lower edge of the intensity guidance, and if the system can develop a better- defined inner core it could strengthen more than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 18.2N 84.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 28/1200Z 20.1N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 22.9N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 26.2N 77.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 30/0000Z 30.8N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 31/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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