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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Public Advisory Number 1
2017-10-27 22:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 272044 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 84.5W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 84.5 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward motion is expected to begin tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system has the potential to produce the following rainfall totals: Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through Friday night. Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba and northwestern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. South Florida including the Florida Keys: 3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum of 8 inches possible. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-10-27 22:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 272044 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 12(12) 27(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 14(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 33(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-10-27 22:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 272041 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS... LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 84.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 70SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 84.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 84.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.1N 84.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.7N 82.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 79.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 84.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-16 04:57:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Oct 2017 02:57:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Oct 2017 02:57:59 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 28
2017-10-16 04:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160252 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 Within just the past six hours, the last bit of deep convection near Ophelia's center has been sheared off well to the north, and the cyclone has acquired a definitive extratropical structure. Ophelia has completed its transition to an occluded low, with an attached warm front extending northeastward across Ireland and a cold front draped southeastward toward Spain and Portugal. The powerful cyclone continues to produce hurricane-force winds, with recent ASCAT data showing wind vectors as high as 70 kt to the east of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 75 kt to account for undersampling. The occluded low is forecast to gradually fill and weaken during the next couple of days, and it is likely to dissipate near the western coast of Norway by 48 hours. Despite the expected weakening, the post-tropical cyclone is still likely to bring hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, to portions of western Ireland on Monday. Ophelia has accelerated and retrograded slightly during the past 6-12 hours during the occlusion process, and the long-term motion estimate is northward, or 010/38 kt. Now that occlusion is complete, the post-tropical cyclone should resume a north- northeastward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, within the next 12 hours. That heading should continue for the ensuing day or two, bringing the center of the cyclone near the western coast of Ireland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night. The dynamical track models remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC forecast is not too different from the previous one. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center now that Ophelia has become post-tropical. Local forecasts, warnings, and other communications regarding the post-tropical cyclone that are pertinent to Ireland and the United Kingdom will continue to be available from Met Eireann and the UK Met Office. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom Monday and Monday night. Strong winds and heavy rain are likely in portions of these areas, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. 2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of the NHC forecast cone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 49.2N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1200Z 61.9N 0.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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