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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-29 01:47:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 23:47:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 21:30:29 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-29 01:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 the center of Ten was located near 32.4, -79.7 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 5A
2017-08-29 01:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 282346 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 ...DISTURBANCE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 79.7W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the area of minimum pressure associated with the disturbance was estimated near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 79.7 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will move near or over the coast of South Carolina tonight and across the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The strongest winds are over water well to the east of the area of minimum pressure. Although the disturbance has not become any better organized today, there is still potential for the system to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected over portions of the Carolinas during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) to the east of the area of minimum pressure. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight. RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the northeastern South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or so, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado is possible tonight through midday Tuesday along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-28 22:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 20:44:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 21:30:29 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-08-28 22:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 282040 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane has been flying through the disturbance and so far the aircraft data depicts a sharp trough with a few spots of tropical-storm-force winds east of the trough axis. The overall cloud pattern has not become any better organized, and most of the weather is located in bands well to the northeast and southeast of the trough. With the shear increasing, the chances for the system to become a tropical storm are diminishing, but if it does occur it should happen within the next 24 hours or so while the system moves near the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Regardless of whether tropical cyclone formation occurs, tropical storm conditions are still expected in the warning area in North Carolina. Beyond 24 hours, the system should acquire extratropical characteristics. However, the exact timing of the transition is uncertain since the cyclone will still be moving over warm waters. In reality, we can not track a center of circulation that does not exist and NHC is following an area of minimum pressure. This makes the initial motion highly uncertain and the best estimate is toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 10 kt. The system is already embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a trough, and this pattern will steer the disturbance toward the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 32.2N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0600Z 33.4N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 29/1800Z 35.6N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/0600Z 38.0N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1800Z 40.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1800Z 43.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/1800Z 47.0N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1800Z 51.6N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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