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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Advisory Number 25
2016-09-03 16:53:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 03 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 031453 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1500 UTC SAT SEP 03 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND MARTHAS VINEYARD NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET TO WEST OF WATCH HILL * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD * TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND EASTWARD * DELAWARE BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WATCH HILL TO SAGAMORE BEACH * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITH 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UNITED STATES NORTHEAST COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 75.2W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 160SE 30SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 260SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 75.2W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 75.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.1N 73.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 110NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 120SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 37.9N 71.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 0SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 38.4N 71.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...150NE 70SE 90SW 150NW. 34 KT...220NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 38.7N 71.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT...210NE 160SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.5N 71.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 40.4N 70.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 41.0N 67.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 75.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone GASTON Graphics
2016-09-03 10:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2016 08:37:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2016 08:37:34 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 47
2016-09-03 10:38:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 03 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030838 TCDAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST SAT SEP 03 2016 Gaston has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and is now a swirl of stratocumulus clouds. Since the cyclone is moving over 22-23 deg C waters and embedded in northwesterly shear of about 35 kt, the likelihood that any new convection would reform is slim. Given this, Gaston is being declared a post-tropical remnant low on this advisory. Without any new convection redeveloping the vortex is expected to spin down rather quickly, and global models show Gaston opening up into a trough in about 18 hours. The initial motion estimate is 065/15. The post-tropical cyclone should accelerate east-northeastward at the base of the mid- latitude westerlies today, and then turn northeastward ahead of a trough digging over Atlantic Canada prior to dissipation on Sunday. This is the last advisory issued on Gaston by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 40.5N 26.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 03/1800Z 42.4N 24.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-09-03 10:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 3 the center of GASTON was located near 40.5, -26.9 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone GASTON Public Advisory Number 47
2016-09-03 10:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 03 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030837 TCPAT2 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST SAT SEP 03 2016 ...GASTON BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.5N 26.9W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gaston was located near latitude 40.5 North, longitude 26.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. A turn toward the northeast with some further increase in forward speed is expected by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely, and Gaston is expected to dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Gaston should continue affecting portions of the Azores today, but should diminish tonight and Sunday. These swells are could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Gaston. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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