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Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Graphics
2016-08-09 23:04:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2016 20:32:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2016 21:04:35 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-08-09 22:31:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092031 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 Satellite images show that the system lacks sufficient organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore the cyclone is now being designated as a post-tropical remnant low, and this will be the last advisory on Javier. Surface observations and ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are near 25 kt. The low should continue to gradually spin down, and it is likely to dissipate by Thursday. The center has become less well defined, but the best estimate of initial motion is around 310/9 kt. The low is likely to continue moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure system until dissipation. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.6N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 10/0600Z 25.3N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1800Z 26.2N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 27.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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javier
Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-08-09 22:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 092031 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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javier
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER (EP1/EP112016)
2016-08-09 22:30:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JAVIER BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Aug 9 the center of JAVIER was located near 24.6, -112.0 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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javier
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posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Public Advisory Number 11
2016-08-09 22:30:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 092030 TCPEP1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 ...JAVIER BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 112.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 112.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the low will continue to move near or over the southern Baja California peninsula for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast for the next day or so, and the low is expected to dissipate on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnant low of Javier is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur and northwest Mexico through Thursday morning, with maximum amounts of up to 8 inches possible. Moisture partially related to Javier has spread into Arizona and New Mexico, where 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 8 inches, are possible through Thursday. The expected rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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